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| Construction and verification of risk prediction model of radiation esophagitis in patients with esophageal cancer |
| Zhang Yu, Dong Xue |
| Department of VIP Medical Services National Cancer Center / National Clinical Research Center for Cancer / Cancer Hospital Chinese
Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College Beijing 100021 China |
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Abstract Objective To explore the establishment of a risk nomogram prediction model for radiation esophagitis in patients with
esophageal cancer. Method A total of 94 patients with esophageal cancer who underwent radiation therapy in Department of VIP
Medical Services of the Cancer Hospital Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College from October 2017
to July 2022 were selected as the study objects. They were divided into two groups according to whether radiation esophagitis occurred
during follow-up including 53 patients in the radiation esophagitis group and 41 patients in the non -radiation esophagitis group.
Multivariate Logistic regression analysis was used to screen the independent risk factors of radiation esophagitis in patients with
esophageal cancer and the nomogram model was established on this basis. Result There were statistically significant differences in
surgical conditions nutritional support tumor location TNM stage and hypoproteinemia between radiation esophagitis group and
non-radiation esophagitis group P< 0. 05 . Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed no surgery OR = 3. 152 95% CI =
1. 070-4. 471 no nutritional support OR = 2. 330 95%CI = 1. 268-3. 544 tumor location in the neck OR = 3. 380 95% CI =
1. 197- 10. 551 and TNM stage ≥ Ⅲ OR = 2. 625 95% CI = 1. 387 - 5. 554 were independent risk factors for radiation
esophagitis. Based on the results of multivariate Logistic regression analysis a nomogram prediction model was established and
receiver operating characteristic curve ROC was used to evaluate the prediction efficiency of radiation esophagitis. The results showed
that the area under the curve AUC was 0. 730. Conclusion Radiation esophagitis may occur in some patients with esophageal cancer
after radiotherapy. The independent risk factors for radiation esophagitis include no operation no nutritional support neck location of
the tumor and TNM stage ≥Ⅲ. The establishment of a quantitative nomogram prediction model based on the above risk factors has
good efficacy and clinical application value.
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